A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has got something to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
