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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It often functions as a type of apology. We regret we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic improvement receives the prize. However, it fuels an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're actually honoring excellent coaching or merely the greatest surprise.

But the current race is fundamentally unique. The pool of candidates is unusually talented. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions fading and recent also-rans improving together. In an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and fun year, he's up against multiple other elite coaches.

Here is how the ideal vote should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to showcase his special talent. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained performance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an offense built entirely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when openings haven't been there, he's been capable to spin magic from nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually every bet – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a ordinary year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this is not a normal year!

Where his candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. However he comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has excelled at the leadership aspects, which wasn't a certainty after his early public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching blend of new ideas and experience, he trusted first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason setback had the team stumbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him only one place ahead of peers.

Still